Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
